The archives have three categories: articles, books and podcasts/videos. The topics in each area include
Articles
Westrend Group Overheads
This ia brief (5) set of overheads the value of forecasting and environmental assessment. It includes slides on Cautions, Ways to Organize Idea About the Future, Approaches to Assessing Potential Impacts and the and the Challenges Inherent in Assessing Future Possibilities. These could be helpful in working sessions with Boards and/or Senior Management Groups.
Davos Predictions
This article includes a brief description of 14 Predictions from the World Economic Forum - sponsor of the annual "Davos Conference." They have called these the elements of the "4th Industrial Revolution". It also includes a circle diagram of issues that could affect us. DAVOS PREDICTIONS
WWW.DROPBOX.COM/S/1ARCTJ2PAPP8G0N/DAVOS%20FORECASTS.DOCX?DL=0
This article includes a brief description of 14 Predictions from the World Economic Forum - sponsor of the annual "Davos Conference." They have called these the elements of the "4th Industrial Revolution". It also includes a circle diagram of issues that could affect us. DAVOS PREDICTIONS
WWW.DROPBOX.COM/S/1ARCTJ2PAPP8G0N/DAVOS%20FORECASTS.DOCX?DL=0
Tech Trends from IDC
This is an article with 10 predictions from International Data Corporation. Most have implications for how we think about organizations and what thy will look like. TECH TRENDS FROM IDC
WWW.DROPBOX.COM/S/L47CJMAJ5VXCAD8/TOP%2010%20TECH%20PREDICTIONS%20FOR%202020%20FROM%20IDC%20%281%29.DOCX?DL=0
This is an article with 10 predictions from International Data Corporation. Most have implications for how we think about organizations and what thy will look like. TECH TRENDS FROM IDC
WWW.DROPBOX.COM/S/L47CJMAJ5VXCAD8/TOP%2010%20TECH%20PREDICTIONS%20FOR%202020%20FROM%20IDC%20%281%29.DOCX?DL=0
20 Trends to Watch - Policy Issues to Watch in 2020 -
This is an article from the Brookings Institute with trends they believe we need to watch. BROOKINGS INSTITUTE WWW.DROPBOX.COM/S/6GIZ85IW8E33VQV/BROOKINGS%20TRENDS%20%281%29.DOCX?DL=0
This is an article from the Brookings Institute with trends they believe we need to watch. BROOKINGS INSTITUTE WWW.DROPBOX.COM/S/6GIZ85IW8E33VQV/BROOKINGS%20TRENDS%20%281%29.DOCX?DL=0
Trends: Change and the Future
Stephen Millett - 5 Principles of Futuring as Applied to History
Stephen Millet's 5 Principle are helpful prompts in thinking about the future. As the World Futurist Society notes his "goal is to help individuals and organizations improve long-term foresight and decision making."
http://www.wfs.org/content/futurist/september-october-2011-vol-45-no-5/five-principles-futuring-applied-history
Stephen Millett - 5 Principles of Futuring as Applied to History
Stephen Millet's 5 Principle are helpful prompts in thinking about the future. As the World Futurist Society notes his "goal is to help individuals and organizations improve long-term foresight and decision making."
http://www.wfs.org/content/futurist/september-october-2011-vol-45-no-5/five-principles-futuring-applied-history
Innovation
Rosabeth Moss Kanter - Innovation: The Classic Traps -
Rosabeth Moss Kanter summarized what she called 'the classic traps' in a 2006 Harvard Business Review article. She focused on 'hurdles too high, scope too narrow', process mistakes:controls too tight', 'structure mistakes:connections too loose, separations too sharp', and 'skills mistakes:leadership too weak, communication too poor.' While she was writing about innovation many of her points are more broadly applicable and worth considering. She concludes with what she calls 'innovation remedies.'
http://www.theclci.com/resources/6HBR-Innovation.pdf
Rosabeth Moss Kanter - Innovation: The Classic Traps -
Rosabeth Moss Kanter summarized what she called 'the classic traps' in a 2006 Harvard Business Review article. She focused on 'hurdles too high, scope too narrow', process mistakes:controls too tight', 'structure mistakes:connections too loose, separations too sharp', and 'skills mistakes:leadership too weak, communication too poor.' While she was writing about innovation many of her points are more broadly applicable and worth considering. She concludes with what she calls 'innovation remedies.'
http://www.theclci.com/resources/6HBR-Innovation.pdf
Innovation
DARPA - Fifty Years of Hits and Misses
DARPA – the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency - is a wonderful example of the government’s ability to take risks that are beyond what the private sector can do. Over the years it has had a stunning record of success, the development of the Internet for example, and numerous failures. It is a good example of managing performance and the willingness to take risks to achieve big goals. The article chronicles DARPA's "hits and misses" and some projects that are "still open."
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13907-fifty-years-of-darpa-hits-misses-and-ones-to-watch.html?full=true#.U_-nuEu7cvQ
DARPA - Fifty Years of Hits and Misses
DARPA – the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency - is a wonderful example of the government’s ability to take risks that are beyond what the private sector can do. Over the years it has had a stunning record of success, the development of the Internet for example, and numerous failures. It is a good example of managing performance and the willingness to take risks to achieve big goals. The article chronicles DARPA's "hits and misses" and some projects that are "still open."
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13907-fifty-years-of-darpa-hits-misses-and-ones-to-watch.html?full=true#.U_-nuEu7cvQ
Organizational Development
Paul Carroll and Chunka Mui - 7 Ways to Fail Big
The examples Paul Carroll and Chunka Mui discuss here aren’t always bad ideas; they’ve generated a tremendous amount of wealth for some companies. But they are attractive in ways that can tempt executives to disregard danger signals.
In this article Carroll and Mui describe seven risky strategies and provide advice on how to manage them.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/em0kxoua6cmxjge/Seven%20Ways%20to%20Fail%20Big.pdf?dl=0
Paul Carroll and Chunka Mui - 7 Ways to Fail Big
The examples Paul Carroll and Chunka Mui discuss here aren’t always bad ideas; they’ve generated a tremendous amount of wealth for some companies. But they are attractive in ways that can tempt executives to disregard danger signals.
In this article Carroll and Mui describe seven risky strategies and provide advice on how to manage them.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/em0kxoua6cmxjge/Seven%20Ways%20to%20Fail%20Big.pdf?dl=0
Strategy
Henry Mintzberg - Ten Schools of Strategic Planning
Henry Mintzberg is a keen observer of people and organizations. In his bio he says he has "been an academic most of my working life, after receiving my undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from McGill University in Montreal, and working in Operational Research at the Canadian National Railways. I am now Cleghorn Professor of Management Studies at McGill." Mintzberg's work on strategic planning is outstanding.
I have attached a slide presentation on Mintzberg's Ten Schools of Strategic Planning which is a helpful summary of the field. I have also attached a Forbes Magazine article - Porter or Mintzberg: Whose View of Strategy Is the Most Relevant Today? summarizing their views and differences.
Henry Mintzberg - Ten Schools of Strategic Planning
Henry Mintzberg is a keen observer of people and organizations. In his bio he says he has "been an academic most of my working life, after receiving my undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from McGill University in Montreal, and working in Operational Research at the Canadian National Railways. I am now Cleghorn Professor of Management Studies at McGill." Mintzberg's work on strategic planning is outstanding.
I have attached a slide presentation on Mintzberg's Ten Schools of Strategic Planning which is a helpful summary of the field. I have also attached a Forbes Magazine article - Porter or Mintzberg: Whose View of Strategy Is the Most Relevant Today? summarizing their views and differences.
Leadership
Sixteen Qualities of a Good Teacher
Douglas R. Eikermann
While Elkerman's article talks about teachers, his 16 qualities apply to teachers, managers and professionals in every field. This is a good checklist to assess our personal habits and conduct.
http://slingingthebull.com/sixteen-qualities-of-a-good-teacher/
Sixteen Qualities of a Good Teacher
Douglas R. Eikermann
While Elkerman's article talks about teachers, his 16 qualities apply to teachers, managers and professionals in every field. This is a good checklist to assess our personal habits and conduct.
http://slingingthebull.com/sixteen-qualities-of-a-good-teacher/
McKinsey Managers and Machines
In a 1967 McKinsey Quarterly article, “The Manager and the Moron,” Peter Drucker noted that “the computer makes no decisions; it only carries out orders. It’s a total moron, and therein lies its strength. It forces us to think, to set the criteria. The stupider the tool, the brighter the master has to be—and this is the dumbest tool we have ever had.”1
How things have changed. After years of promise and hype, machine learning has at last hit the vertical part of the exponential curve. Computers are replacing skilled practitioners in fields such as architecture, aviation, the law, medicine, and petroleum geology—and changing the nature of work in a broad range of other jobs and professions. Deep Knowledge Ventures, a Hong Kong venture-capital firm, has gone so far as to appoint a decision-making algorithm to its board of directors."
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/leading_in_the_21st_century/manager_and_machine?cid=mckq50-eml-alt-mkq-mck-oth-1409
In a 1967 McKinsey Quarterly article, “The Manager and the Moron,” Peter Drucker noted that “the computer makes no decisions; it only carries out orders. It’s a total moron, and therein lies its strength. It forces us to think, to set the criteria. The stupider the tool, the brighter the master has to be—and this is the dumbest tool we have ever had.”1
How things have changed. After years of promise and hype, machine learning has at last hit the vertical part of the exponential curve. Computers are replacing skilled practitioners in fields such as architecture, aviation, the law, medicine, and petroleum geology—and changing the nature of work in a broad range of other jobs and professions. Deep Knowledge Ventures, a Hong Kong venture-capital firm, has gone so far as to appoint a decision-making algorithm to its board of directors."
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/leading_in_the_21st_century/manager_and_machine?cid=mckq50-eml-alt-mkq-mck-oth-1409
Leadership
Alabama's Nick Saban
"Above all, Saban keeps his players and coaches focused on execution — yes, another word for process — rather than results."
http://fortune.com/2012/09/07/leadership-lessons-from-alabama-football-coach-nick-saban/
Alabama's Nick Saban
"Above all, Saban keeps his players and coaches focused on execution — yes, another word for process — rather than results."
http://fortune.com/2012/09/07/leadership-lessons-from-alabama-football-coach-nick-saban/
Technology
Bill Joy - Why the Future Doesn't Need Us
Wired Magazine publishes articles that are usually informative, provocative, interesting or all three. One of the most provocative was Bill Joy's "Why The Future Doesn't Need Us" suggests our most powerful 21st-century technologies - robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech - are threatening to make humans an endangered species.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html
Bill Joy - Why the Future Doesn't Need Us
Wired Magazine publishes articles that are usually informative, provocative, interesting or all three. One of the most provocative was Bill Joy's "Why The Future Doesn't Need Us" suggests our most powerful 21st-century technologies - robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech - are threatening to make humans an endangered species.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html
Organizational Development
Complicated vs. Complex Problems
Most managers have been trained to think problems can solved and that there is "one best way" to solve them. That may have been trus in the [distant] past bit it issn't tue now. The idea of "wicked problems" is a more helpful way to think about the challenges managers face. Understanding that the problems and issues are "complex" rather than "complicated" is another. "Complicated" problems can be solved; managing "complex" problems effectively leads to more and better problems and opportunites
Below are two links to help understand the phenomenon. The first is a Harvard Business Review Article by Gökçe Sargut and Rita McGrath.
https://hbr.org/2011/09/learning-to-live-with-complexity
The second is a course on "Understanding Complexity" taught by Professor Scott Page and available from The Teaching Company. [Note: course always go on sale at some time during the year - prices are much lower when they are on sale.]
http://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/mathematics/understanding-complexity.html
Complicated vs. Complex Problems
Most managers have been trained to think problems can solved and that there is "one best way" to solve them. That may have been trus in the [distant] past bit it issn't tue now. The idea of "wicked problems" is a more helpful way to think about the challenges managers face. Understanding that the problems and issues are "complex" rather than "complicated" is another. "Complicated" problems can be solved; managing "complex" problems effectively leads to more and better problems and opportunites
Below are two links to help understand the phenomenon. The first is a Harvard Business Review Article by Gökçe Sargut and Rita McGrath.
https://hbr.org/2011/09/learning-to-live-with-complexity
The second is a course on "Understanding Complexity" taught by Professor Scott Page and available from The Teaching Company. [Note: course always go on sale at some time during the year - prices are much lower when they are on sale.]
http://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/mathematics/understanding-complexity.html
Organizational Development
Wicked Problems
Horst Rittel and Melvin M. Webber coined the phrase "wicked problems" in 1973 to frame the difference between "wicked problems" and what they called "tame" or soluble problems. Most managers think of their challenges as problems that can be solved and their job is to find the solution. Wicked problems are different and are generally defined as problems "that are difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize." [from Wikipedia].
The linked file has a list of descriptors of wicked problems that should be useful in helping managers recognize them. https://www.dropbox.com/s/ygd7y4swtvc08kw/The%2010%20Properties%20of%20Wicked%20Problems.docx?dl=0
Wicked Problems
Horst Rittel and Melvin M. Webber coined the phrase "wicked problems" in 1973 to frame the difference between "wicked problems" and what they called "tame" or soluble problems. Most managers think of their challenges as problems that can be solved and their job is to find the solution. Wicked problems are different and are generally defined as problems "that are difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize." [from Wikipedia].
The linked file has a list of descriptors of wicked problems that should be useful in helping managers recognize them. https://www.dropbox.com/s/ygd7y4swtvc08kw/The%2010%20Properties%20of%20Wicked%20Problems.docx?dl=0
Podcasts
LUCK
Most of us tend to overlook the role luck plays in each of our lives. Michael Lewis, the author of numerous best sellers, talked about the role luck has played in his life in a 2012 Baccalaureate Address at Princeton University. Ken Stella, a friend and colleague for over thirty years, suggests that to recognize luck and take advantage of opportunities you need to to be "in the right place at the right time, emotionally open and professionally prepared."
Michael Lewis' discussion of luck in his own life should be helpful to each of us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiQ_T5C3hIM
Most of us tend to overlook the role luck plays in each of our lives. Michael Lewis, the author of numerous best sellers, talked about the role luck has played in his life in a 2012 Baccalaureate Address at Princeton University. Ken Stella, a friend and colleague for over thirty years, suggests that to recognize luck and take advantage of opportunities you need to to be "in the right place at the right time, emotionally open and professionally prepared."
Michael Lewis' discussion of luck in his own life should be helpful to each of us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiQ_T5C3hIM
Click on image to hear podcast
Technology
A 30-year History of the Future - Nicholas Negroponte
Nicholas Negroponte is one of the few people who can be called a "real visionary." He was the founder and original director of the MIT Media Lab, one of the founders and original investors in Wired Magazine and one of the driving forces behind One Laptop per Child. This presentation is his review of the last 30 years of technology development. It includes one wonderfully cautionary tale on forecasting the future – the example of the decision by MIT lawyers not to patent a program called "backseat driver" – the forerunner of what is now MapQuest and Google maps.
A 30-year History of the Future - Nicholas Negroponte
Nicholas Negroponte is one of the few people who can be called a "real visionary." He was the founder and original director of the MIT Media Lab, one of the founders and original investors in Wired Magazine and one of the driving forces behind One Laptop per Child. This presentation is his review of the last 30 years of technology development. It includes one wonderfully cautionary tale on forecasting the future – the example of the decision by MIT lawyers not to patent a program called "backseat driver" – the forerunner of what is now MapQuest and Google maps.
Strategy
Joe Coates - "Futurists Are Different"
Joe Coates was one of America's most distinguished futurists. His experience with the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and his years of consulting experience as well as hundreds of articles demonstrated his grasp of a wide range of issues. His article "Futurists Are Different" is a clear statement that can help us all think differently about the future.
http://www.josephcoates.com/pdf_files/275_Futurists_Are_Different.pdf
Joe Coates - "Futurists Are Different"
Joe Coates was one of America's most distinguished futurists. His experience with the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) and his years of consulting experience as well as hundreds of articles demonstrated his grasp of a wide range of issues. His article "Futurists Are Different" is a clear statement that can help us all think differently about the future.
http://www.josephcoates.com/pdf_files/275_Futurists_Are_Different.pdf
Data
David McCandless on Visualizing Data
David McCandless provides a wonderful presentation on visualizing data. A striking aspect of our work with clients is how often managers' preoccupation with 'the numbers' distorts our perspectives or distracts us from the meaning behind what is being measured. "Visualizing data" helps.
http://video.ted.com/talk/podcast/2010G/None/DavidMcCandless_2010G.mp4
David McCandless on Visualizing Data
David McCandless provides a wonderful presentation on visualizing data. A striking aspect of our work with clients is how often managers' preoccupation with 'the numbers' distorts our perspectives or distracts us from the meaning behind what is being measured. "Visualizing data" helps.
http://video.ted.com/talk/podcast/2010G/None/DavidMcCandless_2010G.mp4
Organizational Development - Reducing Complexity
Yves Morieux presents a brief and compelling case for changing how we think about managing and achieving high performance in organizations. He argues that thinking about 'hard' and 'soft approaches' misses the point and that the key, instead, lies in reducing complexity. This discussion should be helpful to managers and could be the basis for Board and management discussions.
Yves Morieux presents a brief and compelling case for changing how we think about managing and achieving high performance in organizations. He argues that thinking about 'hard' and 'soft approaches' misses the point and that the key, instead, lies in reducing complexity. This discussion should be helpful to managers and could be the basis for Board and management discussions.
Leadership
Malcolm Gladwell - "The Art of Failure"
Malcolm Gladwell's articles are invariably interesting. in "The Art of Failure" he describes the difference between "choking", "panic" and "being in the zone." The article will be helpful reading for every manager who has ever felt pressure and "clutched" or "paniced"
http://gladwell.com/the-art-of-failure/
Malcolm Gladwell - "The Art of Failure"
Malcolm Gladwell's articles are invariably interesting. in "The Art of Failure" he describes the difference between "choking", "panic" and "being in the zone." The article will be helpful reading for every manager who has ever felt pressure and "clutched" or "paniced"
http://gladwell.com/the-art-of-failure/
Innovation -
Clayton Christiansen - 'Disruptive Innovation'
Clayton Christiansen has focused on what he call 'disruptive innovation.' The link is to his web page with a summary of his ideas and a brief video.
http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/
Clayton Christiansen - 'Disruptive Innovation'
Clayton Christiansen has focused on what he call 'disruptive innovation.' The link is to his web page with a summary of his ideas and a brief video.
http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/
Leadership
Understanding Genius - Elizabeth Gilbert
Elizabeth Gilbert talks about how our understanding of what it means to be a genius has changed. She believes that, instead of the rare person "being" a genius, all of us "have" a genius. The talk that will encourage listeners to think differently about what being a genius means - and how each of us can be a 'genius.'
https://www.ted.com/talks/elizabeth_gilbert_on_genius?language=en
Understanding Genius - Elizabeth Gilbert
Elizabeth Gilbert talks about how our understanding of what it means to be a genius has changed. She believes that, instead of the rare person "being" a genius, all of us "have" a genius. The talk that will encourage listeners to think differently about what being a genius means - and how each of us can be a 'genius.'
https://www.ted.com/talks/elizabeth_gilbert_on_genius?language=en
Data
Kenneth Cukier - Big Data is Better Data
Cukier is the Data Editor of The Economist. His work has been focused on innovation, intellectual property and Internet governance. Kenneth is also the co-author of Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think with Viktor Mayer-Schönberger in 2013, which was a New York Times Bestseller and translated into 16 languages.
http://www.ted.com/talks/kenneth_cukier_big_data_is_better_data
Kenneth Cukier - Big Data is Better Data
Cukier is the Data Editor of The Economist. His work has been focused on innovation, intellectual property and Internet governance. Kenneth is also the co-author of Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think with Viktor Mayer-Schönberger in 2013, which was a New York Times Bestseller and translated into 16 languages.
http://www.ted.com/talks/kenneth_cukier_big_data_is_better_data
Books
Marketing
Ted Levitt's The Marketing Imagination is one of the classic books in American business literature. Levitt wrote the book in 1984 and was one of the first to introduce the idea of "the globalization of markets" and as importantly – if not more so – the idea of the "industrialization of service." Levitt's book is distinctive in that he transcends the "how-to" orientation of many books on sales and focuses on what marketing means from a management perspective.
Ted Levitt's The Marketing Imagination is one of the classic books in American business literature. Levitt wrote the book in 1984 and was one of the first to introduce the idea of "the globalization of markets" and as importantly – if not more so – the idea of the "industrialization of service." Levitt's book is distinctive in that he transcends the "how-to" orientation of many books on sales and focuses on what marketing means from a management perspective.
Innovation
Peter Drucker - Innovation and Entrepreneurship
Drucker focuses on innovation and entrepreneurship as a practice and a discipline.He doesn't talk about psychology and the character traits of entrepreneurs; but rather their their actions and behavior. One real value of the book is Drucker's discussion of specific sources of innovation: the unexpected, the incongruity, process need, industry and market structure change, demographics, changes in perception mood and meaning and new knowledge.
Peter Drucker - Innovation and Entrepreneurship
Drucker focuses on innovation and entrepreneurship as a practice and a discipline.He doesn't talk about psychology and the character traits of entrepreneurs; but rather their their actions and behavior. One real value of the book is Drucker's discussion of specific sources of innovation: the unexpected, the incongruity, process need, industry and market structure change, demographics, changes in perception mood and meaning and new knowledge.
Innovation
Richard Foster - Innovation: The Attackers Advantage
Why leading companies abruptly lose their markets to new competitors
and how a few have avoided this fate by relentlessly abandoning the skills
and practices that brought them success.
Richard Foster - Innovation: The Attackers Advantage
Why leading companies abruptly lose their markets to new competitors
and how a few have avoided this fate by relentlessly abandoning the skills
and practices that brought them success.
Leadership
Max DePree – Leadership is an Art
During a time in which we are increasingly obsessed with technical capabilities and financial performance, DePree provides a powerful alternative perspective on the responsibilities of leadership and what it means.
Among his observations:
Max DePree – Leadership is an Art
During a time in which we are increasingly obsessed with technical capabilities and financial performance, DePree provides a powerful alternative perspective on the responsibilities of leadership and what it means.
Among his observations:
- the art of leadership is"liberating people to do what is required of them in the most effective humane way possible."
- "The signs of outstanding leadership are found among their followers"
- "The first responsibility of a leader is to define reality. The last is to say thank you"
- "Leaders don't inflict pain; they bear pain.'
Leadership
Margaret Wheatley - Leadership and The New Science
Margaret Wheatley published Leadership and the New Science in 1992. Leadership and the New Science launched a revolution in management thinking by demonstrating that ideas drawn from quantum physics, chaos theory, and molecular biology could help us think differently and improve organizational performance.
Margaret Wheatley - Leadership and The New Science
Margaret Wheatley published Leadership and the New Science in 1992. Leadership and the New Science launched a revolution in management thinking by demonstrating that ideas drawn from quantum physics, chaos theory, and molecular biology could help us think differently and improve organizational performance.
Leadership
Pauline Graham (Editor) Mary Parker Follett Prophet of Management
Peter Drucker called Mary Parker Follett the 'prophet of management' and his 'guru'.
Writing early in the 1900's Follett discussed ideas that were overlooked or rejected in her own time but are increasingly important in ours.
Pauline Graham (Editor) Mary Parker Follett Prophet of Management
Peter Drucker called Mary Parker Follett the 'prophet of management' and his 'guru'.
Writing early in the 1900's Follett discussed ideas that were overlooked or rejected in her own time but are increasingly important in ours.
- interrelatedness - 'coactive' as opposed to coercive leadership and management styles
- power with an emphasis on 'power-with' rather than 'power-over' people; where the 'situation' will dictate the action that needs to be taken
- a community-based approach with the idea that natural leaders are born within the group
- the leader guides and in turn is guided by the group
- teaching is carried out by leading
- a skillful leader influences by stimulating others
- the idea of fluid leadership where leaders and followers are in a relationship and the role of leader flows to where it is needed - informal leadership is in the workplace
Trends: Change and the Future
Christopher Cerf and Victor Navasky - The Experts Speak
This is must reading for anyone interested in the foibles, pitfalls and difficulties of 'predicting the future.' Cerf and Navasky have compiled a "book load of misinformation." Examples: in 1930 August Heckscher proclaimed "in 30 years the United States will see the end of dire poverty, distress, and unnecessary suffering; in 1957 Henry Ford II declared "The Edsell is here to stay." and in 1956 Dr. Richard van der Reit Wooley, on assuming the post of British Astronomer announced "Space travel is utter bilge."
There are hundreds more forecasts like this [including forecasts about sex, medicine, the environment, economics politics] - enough to make any forecaster humble.
Christopher Cerf and Victor Navasky - The Experts Speak
This is must reading for anyone interested in the foibles, pitfalls and difficulties of 'predicting the future.' Cerf and Navasky have compiled a "book load of misinformation." Examples: in 1930 August Heckscher proclaimed "in 30 years the United States will see the end of dire poverty, distress, and unnecessary suffering; in 1957 Henry Ford II declared "The Edsell is here to stay." and in 1956 Dr. Richard van der Reit Wooley, on assuming the post of British Astronomer announced "Space travel is utter bilge."
There are hundreds more forecasts like this [including forecasts about sex, medicine, the environment, economics politics] - enough to make any forecaster humble.
Leadership
Anthony Kronman - The Lost Lawyer
Kronman's central point is that in the legal field it is judgment, not expertise, that counts. He focuses on the virtues of an earlier generation of American lawyers who conceive "their highest goal to be the attainment of wisdom that lies beyond technique – a wisdom about human beings and their tangled affairs that anyone who wishes to provide real deliberative council must possess."
While Kronman is writing about lawyers, the points he makes apply to all the professions, managers in public, not-for-profit private corporations as well as elected and appointed public officials at every level of government.
Anthony Kronman - The Lost Lawyer
Kronman's central point is that in the legal field it is judgment, not expertise, that counts. He focuses on the virtues of an earlier generation of American lawyers who conceive "their highest goal to be the attainment of wisdom that lies beyond technique – a wisdom about human beings and their tangled affairs that anyone who wishes to provide real deliberative council must possess."
While Kronman is writing about lawyers, the points he makes apply to all the professions, managers in public, not-for-profit private corporations as well as elected and appointed public officials at every level of government.
Strategy
- Steven Johnson - How We Got to Now
Steven Johnson has written a wonderful book on the often unanticipated side effects of inventions, discoveries and new technologies.
His six topics are: Glass, Cold, Sound, Clean, Time, Light. Johnson argues for "glass as the material that most changed human existence. He traces a web of consequences via the invention of print which led to the widespread adoption of reading glasses, which led to the microscope and telescope, which led to knowing the patterns of the stars, and observing microorganisms."
- Steven Johnson - How We Got to Now
Steven Johnson has written a wonderful book on the often unanticipated side effects of inventions, discoveries and new technologies.
His six topics are: Glass, Cold, Sound, Clean, Time, Light. Johnson argues for "glass as the material that most changed human existence. He traces a web of consequences via the invention of print which led to the widespread adoption of reading glasses, which led to the microscope and telescope, which led to knowing the patterns of the stars, and observing microorganisms."
Words and Language
William Lutz - Doublespeak
William Lutz describes Doublespeak as "language that pretends to communicate but really doesn't." He describes four types of “double speak”: "euphemisms" - words and phrases that avoid harsh, unpleasant or distasteful reality; "specialized language" - verbal shorthand or professional acronyms; “gobbledygook” - simply, as he says, piling up words"; and finally “inflated language” - "designed to make the ordinary seem extraordinary."
Reading Doublespeak will be helpful because it will make it easier to recognize "doublespeak" and avoid using it ourselves.
William Lutz - Doublespeak
William Lutz describes Doublespeak as "language that pretends to communicate but really doesn't." He describes four types of “double speak”: "euphemisms" - words and phrases that avoid harsh, unpleasant or distasteful reality; "specialized language" - verbal shorthand or professional acronyms; “gobbledygook” - simply, as he says, piling up words"; and finally “inflated language” - "designed to make the ordinary seem extraordinary."
Reading Doublespeak will be helpful because it will make it easier to recognize "doublespeak" and avoid using it ourselves.
Organizational Development
Frederick Winslow Taylor - The Principles of Scientific Management
Taylor wote The Principles of Scientific Management in 1911. As the social critic Jeremy Rifkin pointed out: “Frederick Taylor's zealous determination to make efficiency the prime temporal value of our century has had untold consequences for civilization.” Contemporary efforts such as "six Sigma", “lean manufacturing”, “kaizen” and numerous other efforts to increase organizational efficiency are all based on Taylor's work in the early 1900's.
Robert Kanigel - The One Best Way: Frederick Winslow Taylor and the Enigma of Efficiency
Kanigel's biography of Frederick Taylor is an insightful analysis of his ideas and their impact on decisions we make even today. Worth reading - perhaps even more than Taylor's original work.
Frederick Winslow Taylor - The Principles of Scientific Management
Taylor wote The Principles of Scientific Management in 1911. As the social critic Jeremy Rifkin pointed out: “Frederick Taylor's zealous determination to make efficiency the prime temporal value of our century has had untold consequences for civilization.” Contemporary efforts such as "six Sigma", “lean manufacturing”, “kaizen” and numerous other efforts to increase organizational efficiency are all based on Taylor's work in the early 1900's.
Robert Kanigel - The One Best Way: Frederick Winslow Taylor and the Enigma of Efficiency
Kanigel's biography of Frederick Taylor is an insightful analysis of his ideas and their impact on decisions we make even today. Worth reading - perhaps even more than Taylor's original work.
Click on image to get book on Amazon
Human Resources: Managing People
Fredric Herzberg, Bernard Mausner, Barbara Bloch Snyderman The Motivation to Work
At the time of Herzberg’s original book (1959) there was a growing interest in psychology reflected in Herzberg’s work and the work of Abraham Maslow, Robert Hartman and others. Individually and collectively their work shaped much of how we think about values, behavior and motivation today.
Herzberg’s work focused on the factors that influenced motivation at work. His groundbreaking insight described what he called "motivators" and “hygiene factors.” The "motivators" were "factors related to their (employees) tasks, to events that indicated to them that they were successful in the performance of their work, and to the possibility of professional growth." The hygiene factors were "conditions that surround the doing of the job." Hirschberg's groundbreaking work emphasized that while hygiene factors were necessary they would never be the basis for motivation.
Fredric Herzberg, Bernard Mausner, Barbara Bloch Snyderman The Motivation to Work
At the time of Herzberg’s original book (1959) there was a growing interest in psychology reflected in Herzberg’s work and the work of Abraham Maslow, Robert Hartman and others. Individually and collectively their work shaped much of how we think about values, behavior and motivation today.
Herzberg’s work focused on the factors that influenced motivation at work. His groundbreaking insight described what he called "motivators" and “hygiene factors.” The "motivators" were "factors related to their (employees) tasks, to events that indicated to them that they were successful in the performance of their work, and to the possibility of professional growth." The hygiene factors were "conditions that surround the doing of the job." Hirschberg's groundbreaking work emphasized that while hygiene factors were necessary they would never be the basis for motivation.
Click on image to go to Amazon
Values
Andre Compte-Sponville - A Small Treatise on Great Virtues
Most managers and executives are technically competent. The difficulty in politics, financial services and many other fields has less to do with technical capabilities than values and personal behavior. Compte-Sponville’s A Small Treatise on Great Virtues is a 'plain English' straightforward discussion of “virtue.” Compte-Sponville focus on the idea of "balance" as an essential perspective in each of the 13 virtues he discusses: justice, courage, prudence, temperance, fidelity, generosity, compassion, mercy, gratitude, humility, simplicity, tolerance, period, gentleness and good faith. He also includes "politeness" and "humor" both of which, while slightly unusual as "virtues" are essential.
Andre Compte-Sponville - A Small Treatise on Great Virtues
Most managers and executives are technically competent. The difficulty in politics, financial services and many other fields has less to do with technical capabilities than values and personal behavior. Compte-Sponville’s A Small Treatise on Great Virtues is a 'plain English' straightforward discussion of “virtue.” Compte-Sponville focus on the idea of "balance" as an essential perspective in each of the 13 virtues he discusses: justice, courage, prudence, temperance, fidelity, generosity, compassion, mercy, gratitude, humility, simplicity, tolerance, period, gentleness and good faith. He also includes "politeness" and "humor" both of which, while slightly unusual as "virtues" are essential.
Organizational Development
Rita McGrath - The End of Competitive Advantage
Rita Gunther McGrath thinks it’s time for most companies to give up their quest to attain strategy’s holy grail: sustainable competitive advantage. McGrath suggests that neither theory nor strategy has kept pace with the realities of today’s relatively boundaryless and barrier-free markets. As a result, the traditional approach of building a business around "competitive advantage" and then hunkering down to defend it no longer makes sense.
Rita McGrath describes the challenges organizations face in the need to rethink "competitive strategy."
Rita McGrath - The End of Competitive Advantage
Rita Gunther McGrath thinks it’s time for most companies to give up their quest to attain strategy’s holy grail: sustainable competitive advantage. McGrath suggests that neither theory nor strategy has kept pace with the realities of today’s relatively boundaryless and barrier-free markets. As a result, the traditional approach of building a business around "competitive advantage" and then hunkering down to defend it no longer makes sense.
Rita McGrath describes the challenges organizations face in the need to rethink "competitive strategy."
Articles
THIRTY WAYS TO KILL AN IDEA
Every executive/manager has heard one or more of the following 'Thirty Ways to Kill an Idea.' Check off how mnay you have heard - or said yourself.
www.dropbox.com/s/rrlqavanyl9et4n/30%20Ways%20to%20Kill%20an%20Idea.docx?dl=0
Every executive/manager has heard one or more of the following 'Thirty Ways to Kill an Idea.' Check off how mnay you have heard - or said yourself.
www.dropbox.com/s/rrlqavanyl9et4n/30%20Ways%20to%20Kill%20an%20Idea.docx?dl=0
Innovation
There are numerous ways to understand innovation. The attached summary inclueds the ways in which companies such as Dell Computer, Ford, Clorox and the YMCA talk about and mange innovation.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/zju8z1ouuedr6f9/George%20Land%20Award%20Winners.docx?dl=0
There are numerous ways to understand innovation. The attached summary inclueds the ways in which companies such as Dell Computer, Ford, Clorox and the YMCA talk about and mange innovation.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/zju8z1ouuedr6f9/George%20Land%20Award%20Winners.docx?dl=0
Allan Mullally - Ford Motor
Allan Mullaly is widely respected for his work at Ford Motor and successfully guiding the company through a period of significant turmoil.
In an interview with the New York Times Mullally said he focused on four issues: 1. And one of them is this process of connecting what we’re doing to the outside world; 2.What business are we in? What are we going to focus on? What’s going to be our business?; 3. balancing the near term with the longer term; 4.I really focus on the values and the standards of the organization.
These four issues affect managers at every level of every organization.
Read the full interview at;
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/business/06corner.html?emc=eta1
Allan Mullaly is widely respected for his work at Ford Motor and successfully guiding the company through a period of significant turmoil.
In an interview with the New York Times Mullally said he focused on four issues: 1. And one of them is this process of connecting what we’re doing to the outside world; 2.What business are we in? What are we going to focus on? What’s going to be our business?; 3. balancing the near term with the longer term; 4.I really focus on the values and the standards of the organization.
These four issues affect managers at every level of every organization.
Read the full interview at;
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/business/06corner.html?emc=eta1
Eduardo Castro-Wright,
Vice chairman, Wal-Mart Stores
In the last monthly update we talked about complexity and simplicity. The interview with Eduardo Castro Wright highlights that issue
"I read something early on when I was in my first or second management role that you can accomplish almost anything in life if you do not care who takes credit for it. So I’ve tried to do more of that. And I’ve tried to do less of the things that make business more complex. I really like simplicity. At the end of the day, retailing - but you could apply this to many other businesses - is not as complicated as we would like to make it. It is pretty logical and simple, if you think about the way that you yourself would act, or do act, as a customer.
Read the fill interview at
:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/24/business/24corner.html
Vice chairman, Wal-Mart Stores
In the last monthly update we talked about complexity and simplicity. The interview with Eduardo Castro Wright highlights that issue
"I read something early on when I was in my first or second management role that you can accomplish almost anything in life if you do not care who takes credit for it. So I’ve tried to do more of that. And I’ve tried to do less of the things that make business more complex. I really like simplicity. At the end of the day, retailing - but you could apply this to many other businesses - is not as complicated as we would like to make it. It is pretty logical and simple, if you think about the way that you yourself would act, or do act, as a customer.
Read the fill interview at
:http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/24/business/24corner.html
Kevin Kaiser - The Simplicity Quiz
Some years ago Kevin Kaiser at the Kaiser Network developed The Simplicity Quiz - a wonderful way to assess our lives, the daily pressures that affect us and how much time we have for ourselves. Take the quiz - it will intersting to see how 'busy' you are.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/u46ozo40kf5lw7l/Simplicity%20Quiz%20Kevin%20Kaiser.pdf?dl=0
Some years ago Kevin Kaiser at the Kaiser Network developed The Simplicity Quiz - a wonderful way to assess our lives, the daily pressures that affect us and how much time we have for ourselves. Take the quiz - it will intersting to see how 'busy' you are.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/u46ozo40kf5lw7l/Simplicity%20Quiz%20Kevin%20Kaiser.pdf?dl=0
Interview with Nell Minow
Nell Monnow has been a 'economic activist' focused
Q. From your days as a shareholder activist analyzing poor-performing companies, what did you learn about how not to lead?
A. All of them had C.E.O.’s who took an enormous number of steps to make sure that no one would ever question them or second-guess them. At one of the companies we were involved in, we talked to a number of employees who all used the exact same phrase — that if you disagree with the boss, you get fired on the spot.
Read the full interview at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/business/19corner.html?emc=eta1
Nell Monnow has been a 'economic activist' focused
Q. From your days as a shareholder activist analyzing poor-performing companies, what did you learn about how not to lead?
A. All of them had C.E.O.’s who took an enormous number of steps to make sure that no one would ever question them or second-guess them. At one of the companies we were involved in, we talked to a number of employees who all used the exact same phrase — that if you disagree with the boss, you get fired on the spot.
Read the full interview at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/business/19corner.html?emc=eta1
Interview with Ron Kaplan, Trex
The Corner Office Column in the New York Sunday Times is usually good. The interview with Ron Kaplan is particularly good on leadership and judgment.
“Decision-making usually is the dissection of facts to come to a conclusion,” a C.E.O. says, but “coming to a judgment really has to do with the issues of luck, character and probability.”
Read the column at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/business/ron-kaplan-of-trex-on-making-judgments-instead-of-decisions.html
The Corner Office Column in the New York Sunday Times is usually good. The interview with Ron Kaplan is particularly good on leadership and judgment.
“Decision-making usually is the dissection of facts to come to a conclusion,” a C.E.O. says, but “coming to a judgment really has to do with the issues of luck, character and probability.”
Read the column at: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/04/business/ron-kaplan-of-trex-on-making-judgments-instead-of-decisions.html
Steve Lohr -
Can Governments Till the Fields of Innovation?
In 2009 New York Times reporter Steve Lohr described government efforts to become more innovative. The article makes points that apply to all of us.
"But governments are increasingly wading into the innovation game, declaring innovation agendas and appointing senior innovation officials. The impetus comes from two fronts: daunting challenges in fields like energy, the environment and health care that require collaboration between the public and private sectors; and shortcomings of traditional economic development and industrial policies."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/.../21unboxed.html
Can Governments Till the Fields of Innovation?
In 2009 New York Times reporter Steve Lohr described government efforts to become more innovative. The article makes points that apply to all of us.
"But governments are increasingly wading into the innovation game, declaring innovation agendas and appointing senior innovation officials. The impetus comes from two fronts: daunting challenges in fields like energy, the environment and health care that require collaboration between the public and private sectors; and shortcomings of traditional economic development and industrial policies."
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/.../21unboxed.html
The Nine Kinds of Bad Futurists (NOT an exhaustive list)
“If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever.”- George Orwell
I’m not that taken with futurists. It’s not that I dislike all of them, not at all. I admire some futurists greatly, and others I see as consummate professionals. In fact, I even call some of them friends. Still, there are many people out there calling themselves futurists that I haven’t any time for, for I do not think are very good at what they do. Yes, they give good keynote, and many excel at whipping up newsletters or other pontifications on the importance of developing forecasting models, but as to being serious thinkers about the future? Let’s just say that more than a fair few fall short in this area. The curious thing, though, is the many ways in which they’re bad at what they do. Some are too vague, others too self-assured. Some are too caught up with concepts, others too enamored of their methods. Many of them are too tedious for words, and some are plainly insane.
So I decided to list the different kinds of bad futurist, as a somewhat handy field guide for the futurist-spotter. This is not an exhaustive list, and cannot be, for there are very, very many kinds of bad futurists. For instance, I’ve omitted “the crank”, “the obsessive” and “the conspiracy theorist”, even though I’ve come across all three. In a similar vein, I haven’t attempted to burrow too deeply into the different ways one can be a cookie-cutter futurist, nor have I probed the many layers of mysticism in futurism. This isn’t a full listing of pathologies, only a very rough outline of the same – a kind of early warning system.
I’ve put the bad futurists into nine categories, but you should remember that there is a great deal of overlap between these categories. For instance, many of the mystics are also obfuscators, and many of the trendsters are neologizers. However, not all obfuscators are mystics, nor are all mystics obfuscators (some of them are very direct about their mysticism). More than once I’ve come across people who are four or five of these things all at once. At least I think so: I try to head for the bar once these kinds of people pop up.
So, to the list, then. The typical bad futurists start from one of the following nine archetypes, and then mix-and-match aspects of the others. The list, in no particular order:
1. The Obfuscator/Obscurantist
2. The Shock-Jock
3. The Mindless Optimist/Pessimist
4. The Pseudo-Academic
5. The Trendster
6. The Neologizer
7. The Cookie-Cutter
8. The Proselytizer
9. The Mystic
Which one you find most annoying is completely up to you, but all of them are pretty bad. Oh, one more thing. I’ve consistently used the personal pronoun “he” in the descriptions. This is not because all the bad futurists I’ve met are men – far from it. I’ve met quite a few female idiots as well. Still, in my mind’s eye, the archetypal bad futurist is a man (I can picture him perfectly), which is why I’ve used male pronouns. So sue me.
Our first type, the obfuscator, who might also be called the obscurantist, is not interested in telling you anything worthwhile about the future. No, the obfuscator sees the future as existing for one reason, and for one reason only – to make him look good. Failing that, to make him look like a deep thinker. For him, futurism is all about spinning weaves of confusion and paradox, possibly with a few neologisms thrown in for good measure. There is some method to the obfuscators madness (and if you want to label your humble (-ish) author as a bad futurist, the badge of obfuscator might not be a bad start), for the future is confusing. What sets this type apart, though, is that he tries to spin this into an almost dizzying panorama of the possible and the potential, while making it sound as if he has a grip of it all.
The key sin of the obfuscator is not that he makes fuzzy statements: it’s that he obfuscates his own cluelessness. What the obfuscator really wants to hide is the fact that he is just as confused as everyone else, and does so by throwing out an endless array of futures, all while smirking ever so knowingly. It is this, the obscuring of the fact that there really isn’t all that much behind the fancy title of “futurist” he’s adorned himself with, that makes him bad at his job, not the fact that he cannot scry the future. So he gushes forth with vague and paradoxical statements, wrapped in enigmas, taking good care to make it all seem as complicated as possible. He will also, inevitably, bring up a model that goes on just as long as he does – as this will either be a spiral or an eternal loop. It must continue endlessly, for were he or the model ever to stop, you might start asking him difficult questions, and that’s the last thing he wants.
The second type takes a different tack, although there are similarities with the obfuscator. The shock-jock isn’t big on being asked questions either, but for different reasons. For him, futurism is all about eliciting gasps from an audience. People giving you scared looks? Good. People getting vertigo? Even better. People looking sick to their stomachs? BINGO! (Not that this ever really happens, but the shock-jock still hopes it might – one day.) The future is a strange place, which is why some futurists have taken to presenting evermore outlandish and outré claims about the same. This is great for getting well-paying keynote gigs, as shocking things make for great entertainment, but this doesn’t make for great futurism. On the contrary, it often makes for pretty sad futurism, as it becomes more exciting to talk about sexbots and gland harvesting than the more mundane matters that might bankrupt a company or eradicate a profession. The shock-jock doesn’t care, however. He’s there to get a reaction, not to say anything profound.
And can you blame him? Shock-jocks exist because a lot of people enjoy extreme claims about the future – the odder and more outrageous the better – and are prepared to pay good money for people who are good at this. So maybe we shouldn’t be too harsh on this kind of bad futurist. Just like so many of the companies he talks to, he’s a victim of market forces. The demand for certain types of future-talk is big enough to practically force certain futurists over to the dark side.
Speaking of dark sides, the third kind of bad futurist comes in two flavors – dark and light. The mindless optimist/pessimist only sees one side of the story – and then reiterates that ad nauseam. This type wants attention, and knows that the way to get it is to be extreme. For a long time this meant being a doomsday prophet, harping on and on about how everything was going to hell in a hand basket. Be it an environmental disaster, a population bomb, a war between nations, a war between religions, a war between genders or just good ol’-fashioned economic collapse, the mindless pessimist was ready to tell you all about it. A big problem in this futurist genre has been the constant need for one-upmanship. For every mindless pessimist there was another in line behind him, prepared to proclaim that while the first one was right about the general problem, he were far too optimistic. So doomsday ticked ever closer, up until the point that some futurists started to seem quite a bit like your standard doomsday cultist. Not that this stopped them from demanding their keynote fees. Or insisting that they be paid in canned goods and bullets. Actually, for all the talk about the impending apocalypse, most of them seemed to prefer being paid in the very currency they were predicting would soon collapse.
While the mindless pessimists were predicting doom, imminent doooom, a variation began emerging. This is the mindless optimist, the yang to the pessimists yin, always declaring that things will, eventually, be OK. In fact, most are adamant that things will not be just OK, they will be absolutely wonderful! Thanks to (mostly) technological developments, we will live in a world far better than our current one, with all of the problems predicted by pessimists swept away by the magic of innovation and development. Some call it “the age of abundance”, others “techno-utopia”, but all are convinced that it will be great. Even though the pessimists scoff, the optimists are unwavering in their belief that the merry dance of progress will lead us all into a wonderful future. When confronted with the obvious question, “Are you saying that we should just continue as we’re doing, and somehow everything will just get fixed along the way?” the mindless optimist might blink a few times extra, but then smile and say “We just need to let development run its course”.
Next on the list is the pseudo-academic, who insists that the most important thing about futurism is that it is “a proper academic discipline”. This setting of high standards might seem like a good thing, but the pseudo-academic doesn’t really care about research and scholarship (that’s why there’s a “pseudo” in there). No, what he wants is a title, and a cushy position (preferably tenured) to go with it. This character rarely gets involved in anything as muddy and grubby as actually saying something about the future. Instead, he obsessively describes the processes and methodologies of forecasting, and uses lots of words ending with “ology”. In other words, he enjoys writing things that other pseudo-academics can refer to when writing something similar. This kind of futurist likes the cozy, clubby atmosphere of futures studies, and does whatever it takes to ensure that only the initiates “get it” (“get it” meaning, in this case, “can be bothered to deal with”). Pseudo-academics are herd animals, and they like nothing more than conferences with only their own kind, journals only read by their own kind, and discussions that hinge on everyone being in on the con.
So if your futurist starts talking about “ontology” or “multiple epistemologies”, back away. Now, ontology and epistemology are fine words, with proper meaning and use. They are philosophical concepts which address the nature of being and our capacity to talk about this nature of being, and if you’re talking to proper philosophers – or listening to them talking among themselves – these words may be deployed in a sensible manner. But for the pseudo-academic these are weapons of war, an endless battle in which the most important thing is to keep the wrong people out and the right people employed. The fact that this kind of wordplay can be paraded out in front of befuddled businessmen at a keynote or two is a bonus. The audience has no idea what’s going on, but assume the confusion is due to something called “academia”. It’s not, not really, but the pseudo-academic is more than happy to create the image that it is. In fact, he lives for it.
Standing in stark contrast to the pseudo-academic is the trendster. He doesn’t really care about academic trappings, and sometimes makes a big deal out of not having any kind of education. If you think this is weird, it’s because you don’t understand what drives the trendster. He wants to be seen as having a special connection to trends, the kind you can only get when you live and breathe them. He wears the trendiest clothes, listens to the coolest music and eats the now-est food. No matter how hard to you try, you will never, ever be quite as hip as he is. His bag is a special edition, made by an anarcho-syndicalist commune of Belgian designers using only Nepalese raw materials. His playlist is a masterpiece of mashed-up cultural influences. It doesn’t matter whether you “get it” or not. The only thing that matters is that he is at the bleeding edge of trends. In fact, he doesn’t even like his bag, or the music he listens to. He doesn’t have to. It’s trendy. That’s enough.
If you think this sounds absolutely unbearable, you’re correct. A trendster is as annoying as he is needy, and he is unimaginably needy. For him, futurism is an identity project, by which I mean “a way to get all the cool points I missed out on in high school”. Some trendsters are failed artists, with all the baggage that entails. Others found that academic work often involves thinking long and hard about things, which didn’t suit their “style”. Still others are living the dream of hunting trends forever, just as the Beach Boys lived in an endless summer. You can recognize the trendster not only from the architecturally improbable jeans/bags/glasses, but also from the fact that he is not very keen on actually saying much about the future. He prefers the small movement in the present, the cool hunting, the funky band no-one else has heard of. Once in a while he will say something vague about how this might… mean… something… but as his voice trails off, he’s already mentally left the room. For some other, cooler room.
Then there’s the neologizer, and you’ll know you’ve come across one when you’re handed a trend-report full of clever titles, portmanteu concepts and word-play. For this very specific character, the greatest thing about the future is the unending amount of new verbiage he gets to invent to describe it. Nothing is so small that it does not warrant a neologism, nor too grand to escape being described with a funky new combination of terms. Slap on an -onomics, talk about The Something Era/Epoch, proudly proclaim the coming of yet another Generation. It’s fun! The neologizer is a friend and a fellow traveler of the trendster, but where the latter seeks his kicks in experiences, the former gets them from new words. It’s all about the Zeitgeist, you know?
Yes, new words are fun and yes, confounding wordplay can make us think in new ways. But no, this doesn’t tell us a lot about the future. The patron saint of the neologizer is Faith Popcorn, who has made neologisms about the future into an art form. By introducing things such as “EVEolution”, “AtmosFEAR” and “EGOnomics”, she – according to some – captured important trends and made us see them in a new light. The problem is that she also spawned an entire army of people mashing together words more or less at random, often substituting the cheap laughter for actual insight. Take any word. Now take any other word. Combine them. Do they make sense? No, well, try again until you have something that sorta-kinda refers to something you might call a trend. Hey presto, you’re a futurist! If only. No, I’m not saying Faith Popcorn is a bad futurist. I am saying she’s inspired more than a fair few.
If the neologizer likes words, the cookie-cutter likes methods. No, wait a minute. Scratch that. The cookie-cutter likes his methods. He couldn’t care less anyone else’s methods, unless he can impress a client by scoffing at them. The future is his pliant dough, and he believes the best way to approach it is with a really detailed (and impossible to fully deploy) methodology, preferably one with a funky abbreviation. Don’t laugh, the abbreviation is important. I’ve seen futurists almost come to blows arguing over abbreviations. And if you think that sounds funny, you’re wrong. It’s hilarious.
To fully understand the cookie-cutter, you need to realize that he is acting in an economically rational way. Trying to say what the future might bring is really risky, for you may well be wrong. Developing a method for studying it is a lot safer, for you can then always claim that people “don’t get it” or are doing it wrong. As long as his method is very complex, with enough ambiguity to make it either impossible to implement fully or permanently open to interpretation, the cookie-cutter has created a safe haven for himself.
This is not to say that there aren’t true believers among the cookie-cutters, those with such strong belief in their models that they tout them and their results to anyone who’ll listen. The true danger of the cookie-cutter doesn’t lie in anything he says, but in what he does. And what he does, better than almost anyone on the planet, is talk people (mostly those in the public sector) into giving him improbable amounts of money to develop his method. I don’t know about you, but I really don’t want my taxes to go to paying a futurist to think about ways of developing methods of increasing approaches to developing the ways of giving advice about means of assisting politicians to talk about modes of thinking about methods of enhancing how we look to the future. Or something like that.
If you like to have your future served in a handy canned format – “Do exactly what it says on the tin!” – you should talk to a proselytizer. The proselytizer isn’t confused or baffled by the future, quite the opposite. He knows that the future will be defined by X, Y or Z, and is more than willing to explain to you exactly how. In exhaustive detail. Today’s most popular version of this is the person who is utterly convinced that social media is pointing towards a future where everything, everything is “social”. Social economy, social management, social buying, social production, social politics, social entertainment, social love (and, one assumes, sex) and of course “the social era”. Always with the era, this one. The key thing for the proselytizer is to banish all ideas that might point to alternative futures, for they are simply wrong. If the proselytizer has said that the future is A, then it is going to be A, whether it wants to or not.
The proselytizer might well be the kind of bad futurist with least redeeming qualities. He doesn’t care about the future, or about his clients, or even about what he sees happening around him. All is just grist for his mill, evidence that he was right all along. Client not getting the expected responses from e.g. social media? They’re doing it wrong. Data shows people getting bored with social media? The research is flawed. Something else entirely taking over? It’s just a fad. In the 1970’s, a series of futurists bet their careers (not really, they rarely do anything of the sort) on huge famines being just around the corner. None appeared. Did the futurists admit to being wrong? Nope. They insisted that while they may have been off with the timescale, their prediction was solid. Solid, I tell you. Many of them are still waiting for the global famine. Some of them have died waiting. Right now, their offspring are betting their careers on the future. I don’t know if this’ll work any better, but the smart money is on not holding your breath.
Finally there’s the mystic who insists that there is a new kind of future ahead, which only he can see, and which is filled with meaning and wisdom and portent (cue reverb, add echo) and that there is a great change a-coming. If the trendster seems too caught up in the trivial details of the near future, the mystic is primarily interested in the grand sweep of things – and his particular insight into this, along with the adoration he knows will result. No matter when the mystic speaks, one thing is certain – a great change is coming. Whether this is in ecology, economy, society or leadership doesn’t matter half as much as the fact that huge change is coming – and that fawning groupies are available to help him pass the time until the great day arrives. The mystic loves concepts like “seismic shift”, “revolution (of the mind)”, “redefining (whatever)” and anything that involves the words “a new age”. Or “era”. Always with the “era”…
The mystic may seem like an inoffensive kook, but he might in fact be the most dangerous one of the bunch. More than a few people are prepared to be bamboozled by the promise of a new Age of Aquarius. Sure, it might have changed names, and it might not be quite as liberal with the free sex any longer (we can only hope), but many people are eager to buy into the mystic’s grand narrative, simply because being a nay-sayer seems to churlish. So the mystic is free to spout whatever comes to mind, babbling about the great change soon to come and the grand revelations soon to be upon us, safe in the knowledge that most people will either ignore him or decide to become a believer – just in case. Come to think of it, this isn’t a bad metaphor for futurism in general.
So there you have them, nine kinds of really bad futurists, or nine sins that futurists commit. There’s an excellent chance you’ll come across a combo-sinner; Lord knows I have. Just last week I ran into a pseudo-academic proselytizing mystic who had a penchant for calling everything (and I mean everything) a “wicked problem”. Next week I’m meeting a person I suspect is a mindlessly optimistic cookie-cutter with a dash of neologizer. It is enough to drive a man to drink.
Will this listing help you avoid these people? No. But you can have at least a bit of fun during the inevitable keynote, testing out this little framework of mine. Or you could develop a better one. Drop me a line if you do: alfrehn@me.com
About the Author
Alf Rehn a management professor, an internationally recognized business thinker (or something), an author and a speaker. He is currently holding the Chair of Management and Organization at Åbo Akademi University in Finland, was earlier the SSES Professor of Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Sweden, and has in addition taught at universities all over the globe.
“If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever.”- George Orwell
I’m not that taken with futurists. It’s not that I dislike all of them, not at all. I admire some futurists greatly, and others I see as consummate professionals. In fact, I even call some of them friends. Still, there are many people out there calling themselves futurists that I haven’t any time for, for I do not think are very good at what they do. Yes, they give good keynote, and many excel at whipping up newsletters or other pontifications on the importance of developing forecasting models, but as to being serious thinkers about the future? Let’s just say that more than a fair few fall short in this area. The curious thing, though, is the many ways in which they’re bad at what they do. Some are too vague, others too self-assured. Some are too caught up with concepts, others too enamored of their methods. Many of them are too tedious for words, and some are plainly insane.
So I decided to list the different kinds of bad futurist, as a somewhat handy field guide for the futurist-spotter. This is not an exhaustive list, and cannot be, for there are very, very many kinds of bad futurists. For instance, I’ve omitted “the crank”, “the obsessive” and “the conspiracy theorist”, even though I’ve come across all three. In a similar vein, I haven’t attempted to burrow too deeply into the different ways one can be a cookie-cutter futurist, nor have I probed the many layers of mysticism in futurism. This isn’t a full listing of pathologies, only a very rough outline of the same – a kind of early warning system.
I’ve put the bad futurists into nine categories, but you should remember that there is a great deal of overlap between these categories. For instance, many of the mystics are also obfuscators, and many of the trendsters are neologizers. However, not all obfuscators are mystics, nor are all mystics obfuscators (some of them are very direct about their mysticism). More than once I’ve come across people who are four or five of these things all at once. At least I think so: I try to head for the bar once these kinds of people pop up.
So, to the list, then. The typical bad futurists start from one of the following nine archetypes, and then mix-and-match aspects of the others. The list, in no particular order:
1. The Obfuscator/Obscurantist
2. The Shock-Jock
3. The Mindless Optimist/Pessimist
4. The Pseudo-Academic
5. The Trendster
6. The Neologizer
7. The Cookie-Cutter
8. The Proselytizer
9. The Mystic
Which one you find most annoying is completely up to you, but all of them are pretty bad. Oh, one more thing. I’ve consistently used the personal pronoun “he” in the descriptions. This is not because all the bad futurists I’ve met are men – far from it. I’ve met quite a few female idiots as well. Still, in my mind’s eye, the archetypal bad futurist is a man (I can picture him perfectly), which is why I’ve used male pronouns. So sue me.
Our first type, the obfuscator, who might also be called the obscurantist, is not interested in telling you anything worthwhile about the future. No, the obfuscator sees the future as existing for one reason, and for one reason only – to make him look good. Failing that, to make him look like a deep thinker. For him, futurism is all about spinning weaves of confusion and paradox, possibly with a few neologisms thrown in for good measure. There is some method to the obfuscators madness (and if you want to label your humble (-ish) author as a bad futurist, the badge of obfuscator might not be a bad start), for the future is confusing. What sets this type apart, though, is that he tries to spin this into an almost dizzying panorama of the possible and the potential, while making it sound as if he has a grip of it all.
The key sin of the obfuscator is not that he makes fuzzy statements: it’s that he obfuscates his own cluelessness. What the obfuscator really wants to hide is the fact that he is just as confused as everyone else, and does so by throwing out an endless array of futures, all while smirking ever so knowingly. It is this, the obscuring of the fact that there really isn’t all that much behind the fancy title of “futurist” he’s adorned himself with, that makes him bad at his job, not the fact that he cannot scry the future. So he gushes forth with vague and paradoxical statements, wrapped in enigmas, taking good care to make it all seem as complicated as possible. He will also, inevitably, bring up a model that goes on just as long as he does – as this will either be a spiral or an eternal loop. It must continue endlessly, for were he or the model ever to stop, you might start asking him difficult questions, and that’s the last thing he wants.
The second type takes a different tack, although there are similarities with the obfuscator. The shock-jock isn’t big on being asked questions either, but for different reasons. For him, futurism is all about eliciting gasps from an audience. People giving you scared looks? Good. People getting vertigo? Even better. People looking sick to their stomachs? BINGO! (Not that this ever really happens, but the shock-jock still hopes it might – one day.) The future is a strange place, which is why some futurists have taken to presenting evermore outlandish and outré claims about the same. This is great for getting well-paying keynote gigs, as shocking things make for great entertainment, but this doesn’t make for great futurism. On the contrary, it often makes for pretty sad futurism, as it becomes more exciting to talk about sexbots and gland harvesting than the more mundane matters that might bankrupt a company or eradicate a profession. The shock-jock doesn’t care, however. He’s there to get a reaction, not to say anything profound.
And can you blame him? Shock-jocks exist because a lot of people enjoy extreme claims about the future – the odder and more outrageous the better – and are prepared to pay good money for people who are good at this. So maybe we shouldn’t be too harsh on this kind of bad futurist. Just like so many of the companies he talks to, he’s a victim of market forces. The demand for certain types of future-talk is big enough to practically force certain futurists over to the dark side.
Speaking of dark sides, the third kind of bad futurist comes in two flavors – dark and light. The mindless optimist/pessimist only sees one side of the story – and then reiterates that ad nauseam. This type wants attention, and knows that the way to get it is to be extreme. For a long time this meant being a doomsday prophet, harping on and on about how everything was going to hell in a hand basket. Be it an environmental disaster, a population bomb, a war between nations, a war between religions, a war between genders or just good ol’-fashioned economic collapse, the mindless pessimist was ready to tell you all about it. A big problem in this futurist genre has been the constant need for one-upmanship. For every mindless pessimist there was another in line behind him, prepared to proclaim that while the first one was right about the general problem, he were far too optimistic. So doomsday ticked ever closer, up until the point that some futurists started to seem quite a bit like your standard doomsday cultist. Not that this stopped them from demanding their keynote fees. Or insisting that they be paid in canned goods and bullets. Actually, for all the talk about the impending apocalypse, most of them seemed to prefer being paid in the very currency they were predicting would soon collapse.
While the mindless pessimists were predicting doom, imminent doooom, a variation began emerging. This is the mindless optimist, the yang to the pessimists yin, always declaring that things will, eventually, be OK. In fact, most are adamant that things will not be just OK, they will be absolutely wonderful! Thanks to (mostly) technological developments, we will live in a world far better than our current one, with all of the problems predicted by pessimists swept away by the magic of innovation and development. Some call it “the age of abundance”, others “techno-utopia”, but all are convinced that it will be great. Even though the pessimists scoff, the optimists are unwavering in their belief that the merry dance of progress will lead us all into a wonderful future. When confronted with the obvious question, “Are you saying that we should just continue as we’re doing, and somehow everything will just get fixed along the way?” the mindless optimist might blink a few times extra, but then smile and say “We just need to let development run its course”.
Next on the list is the pseudo-academic, who insists that the most important thing about futurism is that it is “a proper academic discipline”. This setting of high standards might seem like a good thing, but the pseudo-academic doesn’t really care about research and scholarship (that’s why there’s a “pseudo” in there). No, what he wants is a title, and a cushy position (preferably tenured) to go with it. This character rarely gets involved in anything as muddy and grubby as actually saying something about the future. Instead, he obsessively describes the processes and methodologies of forecasting, and uses lots of words ending with “ology”. In other words, he enjoys writing things that other pseudo-academics can refer to when writing something similar. This kind of futurist likes the cozy, clubby atmosphere of futures studies, and does whatever it takes to ensure that only the initiates “get it” (“get it” meaning, in this case, “can be bothered to deal with”). Pseudo-academics are herd animals, and they like nothing more than conferences with only their own kind, journals only read by their own kind, and discussions that hinge on everyone being in on the con.
So if your futurist starts talking about “ontology” or “multiple epistemologies”, back away. Now, ontology and epistemology are fine words, with proper meaning and use. They are philosophical concepts which address the nature of being and our capacity to talk about this nature of being, and if you’re talking to proper philosophers – or listening to them talking among themselves – these words may be deployed in a sensible manner. But for the pseudo-academic these are weapons of war, an endless battle in which the most important thing is to keep the wrong people out and the right people employed. The fact that this kind of wordplay can be paraded out in front of befuddled businessmen at a keynote or two is a bonus. The audience has no idea what’s going on, but assume the confusion is due to something called “academia”. It’s not, not really, but the pseudo-academic is more than happy to create the image that it is. In fact, he lives for it.
Standing in stark contrast to the pseudo-academic is the trendster. He doesn’t really care about academic trappings, and sometimes makes a big deal out of not having any kind of education. If you think this is weird, it’s because you don’t understand what drives the trendster. He wants to be seen as having a special connection to trends, the kind you can only get when you live and breathe them. He wears the trendiest clothes, listens to the coolest music and eats the now-est food. No matter how hard to you try, you will never, ever be quite as hip as he is. His bag is a special edition, made by an anarcho-syndicalist commune of Belgian designers using only Nepalese raw materials. His playlist is a masterpiece of mashed-up cultural influences. It doesn’t matter whether you “get it” or not. The only thing that matters is that he is at the bleeding edge of trends. In fact, he doesn’t even like his bag, or the music he listens to. He doesn’t have to. It’s trendy. That’s enough.
If you think this sounds absolutely unbearable, you’re correct. A trendster is as annoying as he is needy, and he is unimaginably needy. For him, futurism is an identity project, by which I mean “a way to get all the cool points I missed out on in high school”. Some trendsters are failed artists, with all the baggage that entails. Others found that academic work often involves thinking long and hard about things, which didn’t suit their “style”. Still others are living the dream of hunting trends forever, just as the Beach Boys lived in an endless summer. You can recognize the trendster not only from the architecturally improbable jeans/bags/glasses, but also from the fact that he is not very keen on actually saying much about the future. He prefers the small movement in the present, the cool hunting, the funky band no-one else has heard of. Once in a while he will say something vague about how this might… mean… something… but as his voice trails off, he’s already mentally left the room. For some other, cooler room.
Then there’s the neologizer, and you’ll know you’ve come across one when you’re handed a trend-report full of clever titles, portmanteu concepts and word-play. For this very specific character, the greatest thing about the future is the unending amount of new verbiage he gets to invent to describe it. Nothing is so small that it does not warrant a neologism, nor too grand to escape being described with a funky new combination of terms. Slap on an -onomics, talk about The Something Era/Epoch, proudly proclaim the coming of yet another Generation. It’s fun! The neologizer is a friend and a fellow traveler of the trendster, but where the latter seeks his kicks in experiences, the former gets them from new words. It’s all about the Zeitgeist, you know?
Yes, new words are fun and yes, confounding wordplay can make us think in new ways. But no, this doesn’t tell us a lot about the future. The patron saint of the neologizer is Faith Popcorn, who has made neologisms about the future into an art form. By introducing things such as “EVEolution”, “AtmosFEAR” and “EGOnomics”, she – according to some – captured important trends and made us see them in a new light. The problem is that she also spawned an entire army of people mashing together words more or less at random, often substituting the cheap laughter for actual insight. Take any word. Now take any other word. Combine them. Do they make sense? No, well, try again until you have something that sorta-kinda refers to something you might call a trend. Hey presto, you’re a futurist! If only. No, I’m not saying Faith Popcorn is a bad futurist. I am saying she’s inspired more than a fair few.
If the neologizer likes words, the cookie-cutter likes methods. No, wait a minute. Scratch that. The cookie-cutter likes his methods. He couldn’t care less anyone else’s methods, unless he can impress a client by scoffing at them. The future is his pliant dough, and he believes the best way to approach it is with a really detailed (and impossible to fully deploy) methodology, preferably one with a funky abbreviation. Don’t laugh, the abbreviation is important. I’ve seen futurists almost come to blows arguing over abbreviations. And if you think that sounds funny, you’re wrong. It’s hilarious.
To fully understand the cookie-cutter, you need to realize that he is acting in an economically rational way. Trying to say what the future might bring is really risky, for you may well be wrong. Developing a method for studying it is a lot safer, for you can then always claim that people “don’t get it” or are doing it wrong. As long as his method is very complex, with enough ambiguity to make it either impossible to implement fully or permanently open to interpretation, the cookie-cutter has created a safe haven for himself.
This is not to say that there aren’t true believers among the cookie-cutters, those with such strong belief in their models that they tout them and their results to anyone who’ll listen. The true danger of the cookie-cutter doesn’t lie in anything he says, but in what he does. And what he does, better than almost anyone on the planet, is talk people (mostly those in the public sector) into giving him improbable amounts of money to develop his method. I don’t know about you, but I really don’t want my taxes to go to paying a futurist to think about ways of developing methods of increasing approaches to developing the ways of giving advice about means of assisting politicians to talk about modes of thinking about methods of enhancing how we look to the future. Or something like that.
If you like to have your future served in a handy canned format – “Do exactly what it says on the tin!” – you should talk to a proselytizer. The proselytizer isn’t confused or baffled by the future, quite the opposite. He knows that the future will be defined by X, Y or Z, and is more than willing to explain to you exactly how. In exhaustive detail. Today’s most popular version of this is the person who is utterly convinced that social media is pointing towards a future where everything, everything is “social”. Social economy, social management, social buying, social production, social politics, social entertainment, social love (and, one assumes, sex) and of course “the social era”. Always with the era, this one. The key thing for the proselytizer is to banish all ideas that might point to alternative futures, for they are simply wrong. If the proselytizer has said that the future is A, then it is going to be A, whether it wants to or not.
The proselytizer might well be the kind of bad futurist with least redeeming qualities. He doesn’t care about the future, or about his clients, or even about what he sees happening around him. All is just grist for his mill, evidence that he was right all along. Client not getting the expected responses from e.g. social media? They’re doing it wrong. Data shows people getting bored with social media? The research is flawed. Something else entirely taking over? It’s just a fad. In the 1970’s, a series of futurists bet their careers (not really, they rarely do anything of the sort) on huge famines being just around the corner. None appeared. Did the futurists admit to being wrong? Nope. They insisted that while they may have been off with the timescale, their prediction was solid. Solid, I tell you. Many of them are still waiting for the global famine. Some of them have died waiting. Right now, their offspring are betting their careers on the future. I don’t know if this’ll work any better, but the smart money is on not holding your breath.
Finally there’s the mystic who insists that there is a new kind of future ahead, which only he can see, and which is filled with meaning and wisdom and portent (cue reverb, add echo) and that there is a great change a-coming. If the trendster seems too caught up in the trivial details of the near future, the mystic is primarily interested in the grand sweep of things – and his particular insight into this, along with the adoration he knows will result. No matter when the mystic speaks, one thing is certain – a great change is coming. Whether this is in ecology, economy, society or leadership doesn’t matter half as much as the fact that huge change is coming – and that fawning groupies are available to help him pass the time until the great day arrives. The mystic loves concepts like “seismic shift”, “revolution (of the mind)”, “redefining (whatever)” and anything that involves the words “a new age”. Or “era”. Always with the “era”…
The mystic may seem like an inoffensive kook, but he might in fact be the most dangerous one of the bunch. More than a few people are prepared to be bamboozled by the promise of a new Age of Aquarius. Sure, it might have changed names, and it might not be quite as liberal with the free sex any longer (we can only hope), but many people are eager to buy into the mystic’s grand narrative, simply because being a nay-sayer seems to churlish. So the mystic is free to spout whatever comes to mind, babbling about the great change soon to come and the grand revelations soon to be upon us, safe in the knowledge that most people will either ignore him or decide to become a believer – just in case. Come to think of it, this isn’t a bad metaphor for futurism in general.
So there you have them, nine kinds of really bad futurists, or nine sins that futurists commit. There’s an excellent chance you’ll come across a combo-sinner; Lord knows I have. Just last week I ran into a pseudo-academic proselytizing mystic who had a penchant for calling everything (and I mean everything) a “wicked problem”. Next week I’m meeting a person I suspect is a mindlessly optimistic cookie-cutter with a dash of neologizer. It is enough to drive a man to drink.
Will this listing help you avoid these people? No. But you can have at least a bit of fun during the inevitable keynote, testing out this little framework of mine. Or you could develop a better one. Drop me a line if you do: alfrehn@me.com
About the Author
Alf Rehn a management professor, an internationally recognized business thinker (or something), an author and a speaker. He is currently holding the Chair of Management and Organization at Åbo Akademi University in Finland, was earlier the SSES Professor of Innovation and Entrepreneurship at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm, Sweden, and has in addition taught at universities all over the globe.
The New Breed of Strategic Planner
In September, 1984 BusinessWeek published a cover story on strategic planning. The central point was "in a fundamental shift of corporate power, line managers in one company after another are successfully challenging the records of professional planners and are forcing them from positions of influence." The point is that planning is increasingly become the responsibility of line managers rather than separate units.
While there is clearly a role for professional planners the article highlights practices of effective organizations.
Read more: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ix9g1as4ri9j4wo/New%20Breed%20of%20Strategic%20Planner%20-%20Newsweek.pdf?m=
In September, 1984 BusinessWeek published a cover story on strategic planning. The central point was "in a fundamental shift of corporate power, line managers in one company after another are successfully challenging the records of professional planners and are forcing them from positions of influence." The point is that planning is increasingly become the responsibility of line managers rather than separate units.
While there is clearly a role for professional planners the article highlights practices of effective organizations.
Read more: https://www.dropbox.com/s/ix9g1as4ri9j4wo/New%20Breed%20of%20Strategic%20Planner%20-%20Newsweek.pdf?m=
Management Time:
Who's Got the Monkey?
The central point of the article "Who's Got the Monkey?" by William Oncken, Jr. and Donald L. Wass is that "managers spend much more time dealing with subordinates problems than they even faintly realize." Whether it's called "delegating up" or "wasting time" the phenomena is the same: managers get sucked into dealing with problems that ought to be dealt with by their employees.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2ed8bkgqyt0dw1h/Who%27s%20Got%20the%20Monkey%3F.pdf?m=
Who's Got the Monkey?
The central point of the article "Who's Got the Monkey?" by William Oncken, Jr. and Donald L. Wass is that "managers spend much more time dealing with subordinates problems than they even faintly realize." Whether it's called "delegating up" or "wasting time" the phenomena is the same: managers get sucked into dealing with problems that ought to be dealt with by their employees.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2ed8bkgqyt0dw1h/Who%27s%20Got%20the%20Monkey%3F.pdf?m=
Pop Goes the Algorithm by Christopher Steiner
Christopher Steiner has provided one striking example of how computers, data and information are changing our lives. This focuses on algorithms and music and have the technologies can be used to "predict which songs would turn into pockets." While the example is about music – this point applies to a wide range of fields one of which is discussed in this month's podcast of data and law enforcement.
http://www.wfs.org/futurist/2013-issues-futurist/may-june-2013-vol-47-no-3/pop-goes-algorithm
Christopher Steiner has provided one striking example of how computers, data and information are changing our lives. This focuses on algorithms and music and have the technologies can be used to "predict which songs would turn into pockets." While the example is about music – this point applies to a wide range of fields one of which is discussed in this month's podcast of data and law enforcement.
http://www.wfs.org/futurist/2013-issues-futurist/may-june-2013-vol-47-no-3/pop-goes-algorithm
The Benefits – and Limits – of Decision Models
Phil Rosenzweig - McKinsey Quarterly – Feb. 2014
Rosenzweig discusses where decision models work well – examples include retailers and banks – and some that are wonderfully humorous – how long celebrity marriages will last. He specifically discusses biases such as "recency bias, placing too much weight on the most immediate information." She pointed Rosenzweig makes this "executives need not only to appreciate the power of models but also the Congress" Rosenzweig focuses on the now popular example of Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics – the basis for Michael Lewis’s best-selling book money ball. The central insight from Bill James was "a very, very large percentage of the things that the experts all knew to be true turned out, on examination, not to be true at all. The point is to be clear about what we can influence or not influence Rosenzweig's article helps clarify issues managers face on an ongoing basis
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/the_benefits_and_limits_of_decision_models
Phil Rosenzweig - McKinsey Quarterly – Feb. 2014
Rosenzweig discusses where decision models work well – examples include retailers and banks – and some that are wonderfully humorous – how long celebrity marriages will last. He specifically discusses biases such as "recency bias, placing too much weight on the most immediate information." She pointed Rosenzweig makes this "executives need not only to appreciate the power of models but also the Congress" Rosenzweig focuses on the now popular example of Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics – the basis for Michael Lewis’s best-selling book money ball. The central insight from Bill James was "a very, very large percentage of the things that the experts all knew to be true turned out, on examination, not to be true at all. The point is to be clear about what we can influence or not influence Rosenzweig's article helps clarify issues managers face on an ongoing basis
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/the_benefits_and_limits_of_decision_models
Do You Suffer from Decision Fatigue?
John Tierney
John Tierney's New York Times article is an analysis of how we make decisions – and a wonderful source of practical suggestions based on considerable research.
Tierney discusses why decisions "fluctuate wildly throughout the day" whether we are judges deciding cases or football quarterbacks calling plays and the article goes on to discuss the phenomenon of "ego depletion" and the idea that there is a "finite store of mental energy" for exerting self-control and making decisions. Tierney writes the "once you're mentally depleted, you become reluctant to make trade-offs" and, somewhat surprisingly, the role of diets and glucose in willpower and decision-making.
Each of us who makes decisions – whether in our personal lives or in our careers – should read the article: it will help us understand what affects our decisions and how we can improve them.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/21/magazine/do-you-suffer-from-decision-fatigue.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
John Tierney
John Tierney's New York Times article is an analysis of how we make decisions – and a wonderful source of practical suggestions based on considerable research.
Tierney discusses why decisions "fluctuate wildly throughout the day" whether we are judges deciding cases or football quarterbacks calling plays and the article goes on to discuss the phenomenon of "ego depletion" and the idea that there is a "finite store of mental energy" for exerting self-control and making decisions. Tierney writes the "once you're mentally depleted, you become reluctant to make trade-offs" and, somewhat surprisingly, the role of diets and glucose in willpower and decision-making.
Each of us who makes decisions – whether in our personal lives or in our careers – should read the article: it will help us understand what affects our decisions and how we can improve them.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/21/magazine/do-you-suffer-from-decision-fatigue.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Click on logo to read article
Aflac’s CEO Explains How He Fell for The Duck
Harvard Business Review January 2010
Daniel Amos’s article on the company’s decision to develop the Aflac duck marketing campaign is helpful because it is a good case study on decision- making. The central issues of risk management, testing ideas and getting people to be willing to try new ideas are all part of his story. Worth reading for anyone trying to introduce new ideas.
Harvard Business Review January 2010
Daniel Amos’s article on the company’s decision to develop the Aflac duck marketing campaign is helpful because it is a good case study on decision- making. The central issues of risk management, testing ideas and getting people to be willing to try new ideas are all part of his story. Worth reading for anyone trying to introduce new ideas.
Click on logo to read article
Ten Tips for Leading Companies Out of Crisis
Doug Yakola McKinsey March 2014
Not many Westrend Group colleagues are in ‘crisis’ but all can benefit from Doug Yakola’s McKinsey Article on “Leading Companies Out of Crisis.” Yakola identifies ten helpful tips.The McKinsey web site also has a brief video with him discussing the article.
Doug Yakola McKinsey March 2014
Not many Westrend Group colleagues are in ‘crisis’ but all can benefit from Doug Yakola’s McKinsey Article on “Leading Companies Out of Crisis.” Yakola identifies ten helpful tips.The McKinsey web site also has a brief video with him discussing the article.
Arthur Schopenhauer’s 38 Stratagems, or 38 Ways to Win an Argument
Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860), was a brilliant German philosopher. These 38 Stratagems are excerpts from "The Art of Controversy", first translated into English and published in 1896. If you listen to the discussion in any management meeting you are likely to hear many of these during the conversation.
Click on link for list: http://www.mnei.nl/schopenhauer/38-stratagems.htm
100 Years of Change
This is a neat series of slides on changes that occurred over the past 100 years - it helps provide a perspective on how we have changed.
Click on link for the article: http://infographicworld.com/100-year-of-change-infographic/
Trends
Interview with Ian Bremmer - The Free Market vs. State Capitalism,
Ian Bremmer's article on navigating a multipolar world is helpful because it clarifies the complexity of relationships in the global community. It is a helpful perspective because every executive and manager faces the same challenges of managing a multitude of issues – productivity, finance, human resources, quality, safety etc. - in dealing with lots of people to accomplish what they need to get done. Bremmer's article is a helpful reminder of this complexity
http://www.wfs.org/content/navigating-multipolar-world-free-market-vs-state-capitalism-interview-ian-bremmer
Interview with Ian Bremmer - The Free Market vs. State Capitalism,
Ian Bremmer's article on navigating a multipolar world is helpful because it clarifies the complexity of relationships in the global community. It is a helpful perspective because every executive and manager faces the same challenges of managing a multitude of issues – productivity, finance, human resources, quality, safety etc. - in dealing with lots of people to accomplish what they need to get done. Bremmer's article is a helpful reminder of this complexity
http://www.wfs.org/content/navigating-multipolar-world-free-market-vs-state-capitalism-interview-ian-bremmer